Occam's Razor

Dilbert's shaving with Occam

A must-read dilbertian perspective (the comments above the post are also worth a quick browse...) on Occam principle..

For Skeptics, occam’s razor has become analogous to a religion. It has a sensible core concept but over time it has morphed into the irrational belief that “the simplest explanation is usually correct” in all sorts of contexts where it just isn’t true.

For example, if you were arguing that millions of people have been abducted by aliens, and you had several theories for why no physical evidence has ever been found, the skeptic would bring up occam’s razor. “The simplest explanation is that those people are lying and/or deluded.” The skeptic would be right in this case, but a lucky rabbit’s foot appears to work sometimes too. The problem is not that occam’s razor works; the problem is that it APPEARS to work in EVERY case, even for people with opposite theories.

I call this problem Adams’ razor, and it goes like this: “The explanation that you believe is correct will always seem simplest to you.”

A must-read dilbertian perspective (the comments above the post are also worth a quick browse...) on Occam principle..

For Skeptics, occam’s razor has become analogous to a religion. It has a sensible core concept but over time it has morphed into the irrational belief that “the simplest explanation is usually correct” in all sorts of contexts where it just isn’t true.

For example, if you were arguing that millions of people have been abducted by aliens, and you had several theories for why no physical evidence has ever been found, the skeptic would bring up occam’s razor. “The simplest explanation is that those people are lying and/or deluded.” The skeptic would be right in this case, but a lucky rabbit’s foot appears to work sometimes too. The problem is not that occam’s razor works; the problem is that it APPEARS to work in EVERY case, even for people with opposite theories.

I call this problem Adams’ razor, and it goes like this: “The explanation that you believe is correct will always seem simplest to you.”

RFID demand acceleration

Following the recent Viagra-RFID tagging news, here is another proof of the dramatic RFID demand acceleration:

US Agriculture Secretary Mike Johanns this month released a government road map that would see most farmers voluntarily tag their animals with wireless radio chips by 2008 as part of an ambitious electronic disease control system to prevent outbreaks of hoof and mouth disease and avian flu, among other things. The system will not address the spread of "mad cow" disease, as it is transmitted through feed rather than animal commingling. By 2007, the program will ask farms or households that house chickens, ducks, turkeys, cows, pigs, goats or horses to register with a database and obtain a 15-digit identification number and GPS coordinate. Beginning in 2008, animals under the proposal would carry a radio frequency identity, or RFID, tag.

It will be interesting to watch how this influence the Alien Technology on-going IPO filling.

CGS 4.0 is now sold-out

We have now 35 people registered for the CGS4.0 dinner of next Friday, i do expect a 20% no-show which should leave another 5 or 6 seats avaialble, email/skype me for any question

Logistic:

Le Bistro Vivienne 4, rue des petit champs 75002 331 4927 0050
Table for 35 reserves at 20:00 (first floor of the restaurant)

Attendees list:

(3) CGS (Clavier + Goldberg + Sepulveda)
(6) Julien Codor + Julien Genestoux + Julien andre
(9) David Guillocheau + Louis van Proosdij + David Pooxy
(12) Jacques Froissant + Alexander Cassasovici + Stephanie
(15) Francisque + Stephane Lee + Louis de Louvieres
(18) Colette Balou + Leafar + Gregory
(22) Michel Paillet + Emmanuel Vivier + Laurent/Chine
(25) Richard Menneveux + Yann Mauchamps + Charles Nhouyrit
(29) Raphael + Thierry + Gabriel + Jonathan
(33) Thierry Dagallier + Franck Poisson + LucieAnn/Joann Peach
(35) Catherine B. + Olivier Seres

Telecom Conference in Geneva

I'm putting the final touch on my panel presentation at the  Telecom World  Congres next Thrusday in Geneva. Let me know if you are in Geneva that day, as I will have some time after my panel.

14.50 Panel: Funding new, new telecommunications businesses

Funding innovation
New business models / new service providers
Technology and equipment start-ups
Venture capital and Private Equity appetites
Risk / return profiles
Incubators and spin-off businesses
Key success factors
Case studies

Peter Gardner, Global Sector Head, Communications, 3i
Duncan Lewis, Senior Advisor, Telco & Media, The Carlyle Group
Marc Goldberg, Managing Partner, Occam Capital

Telecom M&A

Comverse Technology Inc. (Nasdaq: CMVT) has agreed to acquire Netcentrex SA, a French provider of network-based software-enabling voice-video-data and fixed-mobile convergence solutions to service providers.

The deal is valued at approximately $164 million in cash, plus up to an additional $16 million in milestone payments.

Netcentrex has raised VC funding from firms like CDC Entreprises Innovation, Innovacom, Crescendo Ventures, Newbury Ventures, T-Venture, VPSA and Intel Capital. 

OSS consolidation

Following recent rumors of Oracle aquisition and IPO, it was announced todat that Red Hat (Nasdaq: RHAT) has agreed to acquire JBoss Inc., an Atlanta–based provider of open-source middleware.

The deal is valued at around $350 million (40% cash, 60% stock), plus up to $70 million in possible milestone payments. JBoss has raised VC funding from firms like Accel Partners, Matrix Partners and Intel Capital.